France vs Morocco Semifinal Preview: Can the Atlas Lions Avenge 2022, or Does Mbappé End the Fairytale?
They met here before — not in this building, but in this moment. December 2022, Al Bayt Stadium, Qatar, two minutes from the final: France 2, Morocco 0. Théo Hernandez, Randal Kolo Muani, and the first African World Cup semifinal ended. Four years later the same two nations are back in the last four, but Morocco are no longer a romantic story. They are a program, a system, and a 34-match international unbeaten run.
France, meanwhile, are quietly building something historic. A win today would make them only the third nation ever to reach three consecutive World Cup semifinals, joining Germany (four in a row from 2002–2014) and Brazil (three straight from 1994–2002). Didier Deschamps would equal Helmut Schön's all-time record of 25 World Cup matches managed. The stakes are enormous even beyond the scoreline.
The Form Case
France have been the most clinical side at this tournament by a significant margin. Fourteen goals scored across six matches. Kylian Mbappé co-leads the Golden Boot race with seven goals. Michael Olise leads the tournament in assists with five — three short of the all-time single-tournament assist record. France are scoring at 2.8 goals per match and have conceded just twice, the third-best defensive record in the competition. They are unbeaten in 12 consecutive competitive fixtures.
Morocco's case is built on a different kind of evidence. Their 3-0 dismantling of Canada in the Round of 16 was more comfortable than it sounds — Canada barely threatened for 90 minutes. The Atlas Lions have conceded just twice in six World Cup games. Seven of their last nine World Cup defeats have come by a single goal, a data point that tells you this is a side you do not blow out. They pressure you into a mistake and make you pay once.
The Tactical Problem France Has to Solve
Deschamps has built his France side to press high in the first and second thirds, recover possession through Aurélien Tchouaméni and Adrien Rabiot's interceptions, and then release the front three in transition before the opposing defense can reset. Against Morocco, that high press needs to be precise. Morocco's double pivot of Neil El Aynaoui and Ayyoub Bouaddi are technically excellent at playing through pressure and finding Azzedine Ounahi between the lines before France can squeeze.
Morocco's own attacking threat runs almost exclusively through their right flank. Achraf Hakimi has created 15 chances at this tournament — the most by any defender from Africa in a single World Cup edition on record since 1966. Brahim Díaz, who has been directly involved in more Morocco goals than any other player since the start of the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations (six goals, four assists in all competitions), operates in the half-space between Hakimi and the number nine. Together they account for 70% of Morocco's goal involvements this summer. France's left side — with Lucas Digne expected ahead of Théo Hernandez in a defensive choice — will be the most-tested area of the pitch.
Morocco's counterplan is well-documented: compress the midfield, force France wide, and reduce the space Mbappé gets centrally. France's answer is to use Dembélé and Barcola to stretch Morocco's defensive block from the flanks, creating pockets for Mbappé to exploit between the lines. It is a chess match between Morocco's structure and France's individual quality, and individual quality tends to win these things over 90 minutes.
The Injury Picture
Morocco's biggest concern is Ismaël Saibari, who scored in all three group stage matches before being forced off in the first half against Canada with a thigh injury. He is a doubt for today. If he misses it, Morocco lose their most effective runner in behind and their primary link between Bouaddi and the front line. Hakimi and Díaz carry more of the attacking burden, which means France can focus their defensive shape on the right flank with more certainty.
France have no significant injury concerns. Tchouaméni — who missed a penalty in the 2022 final — is expected to be fully fit and starts in central midfield. France are as close to full strength as a team six games into a tournament can be.
The History Angle
This will be only the second competitive meeting between France and Morocco — the first came in that 2022 semifinal. France have never lost a competitive match against Morocco. They have won three and drawn two of their five all-time meetings. But those historical records tend to dissolve in knockout football, and Morocco's current unbeaten run of 34 games is the longest active streak in international football.
Half of France's World Cup defeats this century have come against African opposition — three losses out of six, a worse record than against European (two losses in 15) or South American (zero losses in nine) sides. Morocco know they have a historical opening here that the data confirms.
Key Matchup: Mbappé vs Mazraoui/Riad
Morocco will likely throw Noussair Mazraoui and Chadi Riad at Mbappé centrally when he drifts inside, with Marwane Saadane tracking back from the left flank. France's captain has seven goals but has also been more willing this tournament to drop deep and create rather than just finish. When he comes short, Morocco's double pivot has to decide whether to follow him and open gaps centrally, or hold shape and concede the pocket. There is no easy answer to Mbappé, and Morocco know it.
Our Call
France win this, but not easily and possibly not in 90 minutes. Morocco's defensive organisation will keep this tight through the first half, and if Saibari is fit or Hakimi has one of his marauding nights, Morocco can score. The Opta supercomputer gives France a 61.7% chance across 25,000 simulations, with Morocco pulling the upset in just 16.2% of them. The evidence from this tournament points the same way: France are the right pick, but Morocco have shown repeatedly they can win the moments that matter. If this goes deep, France's depth wins it. But this will not be a stroll.
Watch It in NYC
Kickoff is 4:00 PM ET today, Thursday July 9. French and Moroccan fan communities in NYC are concentrated in Midtown, the East Village, and Bay Ridge. Most soccer bars are opening from noon. If you are at a watch party, grab your spot early — this is the most-anticipated match day of the tournament for the NYC diaspora.